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Forecasting Near-Term Failure of Transformers Using Reliability Statistics on Dissolved Gas Analysis

Dissolved gas analysis (DGA) is widely used for periodic screening of transformers. DGA promises an affordable and non-invasive way to identify energized transformers at risk of fail-
ure. This symptom-based strategy allows for targeted physical testing and prioritization for asset maintenance. Often, DGA results are scored and put into a ‘health index’ to do a so-called ‘condition-based’ maintenance assessment. However, dissolved gases in oil are only an indi- rect symptom of a problem and do not truly indicate condition. Therefore, the gases are not a condition-based measurement. This means timely and accurate interpretation of fault-related gassing is critical for a preventative asset management program. However, various degrees of industry experience with DGA have led the IEEE C57.104-2019 to go as far as to say DGA is “more of an art than a science”. So how well do DGA fault severity assessment methods actually work?

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